Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 10.473264 12.277859 14.249728 16.557712 19.178047 22.053437 25.440131
2025-01-12 7.466807 9.865344 12.752705 16.453289 21.035762 26.487471 33.423607
2025-01-19 5.631170 8.258977 11.696379 16.448291 22.761957 30.768649 41.580923
2025-01-26 4.806685 7.693877 11.738353 17.680865 26.026618 37.144918 52.852716
2025-02-02 4.082649 7.078851 11.543535 18.466644 28.668880 42.844272 63.646739
2025-02-09 3.516835 6.563852 11.366723 19.181575 31.195466 48.507592 74.753148
2025-02-16 2.922770 5.870929 10.782523 19.155916 32.558728 52.546904 83.781940
2025-02-23 2.366294 5.120260 9.969529 18.624918 33.032096 55.236287 90.945530
2025-03-02 1.892155 4.414209 9.107485 17.870696 33.020819 57.116314 96.936637
2025-03-09 1.599565 3.995962 8.682433 17.789040 34.062697 60.658224 105.646705
2025-03-16 1.333324 3.571755 8.173978 17.478468 34.654901 63.477189 113.340560
2025-03-23 1.223485 3.467344 8.268551 18.283000 37.243848 69.715906 126.869783
2025-03-30 1.071352 3.239119 8.092747 18.577637 38.995751 74.759021 138.905778
2025-04-06 0.917940 2.972318 7.795886 18.600396 40.255480 79.060851 150.001233
2025-04-13 0.789244 2.736392 7.527074 18.642533 41.546073 83.491314 161.566246
2025-04-20 0.760837 2.770049 7.879714 20.031080 45.554475 93.003479 182.420254
2025-04-27 0.704070 2.707780 7.994161 20.911279 48.617848 100.970155 200.952240
2025-05-04 0.648360 2.634522 8.069406 21.708368 51.568012 108.886090 219.771302
2025-05-11 0.561293 2.437014 7.797820 21.680608 52.809786 113.670215 233.174615
2025-05-18 0.464743 2.176314 7.313433 21.090455 52.807353 116.072503 242.327131
2025-05-25 0.375587 1.908978 6.758248 20.251479 52.180553 117.203973 249.147709
2025-06-01 0.323404 1.762559 6.517965 20.160635 53.180355 121.572254 262.239612
2025-06-08 0.272016 1.599169 6.195418 19.814954 53.568615 124.724334 273.141996